COLUMBUS, OH — A new report from the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio (PUCO) staff has sent shockwaves through the state’s energy sector, validating claims that AEP Ohio significantly inflated its electricity load forecasts by double-counting projected data center growth.
The findings, released in a review of AEP’s proposed Basic Transmission Cost Rider (BTCR) rates, suggest the utility used “speculative” figures to create a false sense of urgency, potentially shifting unjustified costs onto manufacturers, small businesses, and residential families.
“Significantly Overstated”
The PUCO staff investigation found that AEP’s billing forecasts were “significantly overstated” across multiple customer classes. Most notably, the report confirms that AEP counted projected data center demand multiple times—not only in the high-voltage transmission classes where they belong but also in categories reserved for small businesses.
“PUCO staff just confirmed that AEP’s forecasted electric load did not hold up,” said Ryan Augsburger, president of the Ohio Manufacturers’ Association (OMA). “The utility put forward numbers that shifted costs between customers while masking rising transmission costs unrelated to data centers. That is not disciplined planning. That is a warning sign.”
The “Paper Demand” Problem
The OMA has been warning regulators for months that utilities may be using the “data center gold rush” to win preferential treatment and push for infrastructure projects before the demand actually exists.
John Seryak, an energy engineer for the OMA, argued that AEP leaned on these unvalidated figures to manufacture a “big number” narrative.
“AEP used big numbers to create urgency and push policy in its favor,” Seryak said. “Now commission staff have found that load growth was overstated… Had this not been caught now, it could have been used to justify distribution rate increases.”
AEP Accepts Corrected Numbers
In a telling move, AEP Ohio did not defend its original figures in its reply comments. Instead, the company agreed to accept the PUCO staff’s adjusted, lower billing determinants and updated rates. AEP has also agreed to file an interim update by July 15, 2026.
For advocates, the admission is proof that utility forecasts should no longer be treated as “gospel” by lawmakers.
Impact on the “Ashville Deal”
These findings come at a critical time for local communities like Ashville, where the promise of a $102 million data center deal with EdgeConneX is being weighed against long-term infrastructure costs. If regional load forecasts are being “double counted” at the corporate level, it raises questions about how much of the projected “urgency” for new power plants and transmission lines is based on real-world need versus “paper demand.”
“Ohio needs forecast accountability,” Augsburger concluded, “before more customers get stuck paying for a future that exists only in a utility spreadsheet.”
