COLUMBUS, OH – November 20, 2025 – Ohio retailers are gearing up for a strong holiday season, with total sales expected to climb 3.1 percent to $32 billion, according to the Ohio Council of Retail Merchants’ 2025 holiday sales forecast from the University of Cincinnati Economics Center. This growth exceeds the 2.5 percent increase recorded during the 2024 holiday season.
“This positive forecast reflects Ohio’s continued economic vitality,” said Gordon Gough, President and CEO of the Ohio Council of Retail Merchants. “We’re seeing a resurgence in consumer spending as Ohioans enjoy the benefits of the holiday season.”
Economic Factors Driving Sales Growth
Brad Evans, Executive Director of the University of Cincinnati Economics Center, highlighted several key factors fueling the increase:
- Job Growth: Ohio’s 2025 job growth rate of 1.5% nearly doubles the national rate of 0.8%.
- Wage Growth: Ohioans’ wages grew by 4.8%, outpacing inflation.
- E-Commerce Expansion: Online shopping continues to contribute to overall holiday sales growth.
- Cost of Living & Inflation: Ohio’s cost of living remains below the national average, and the national inflation rate has declined since 2023.
Regional Insights
Six of Ohio’s nine metropolitan areas — Cleveland, Columbus, Cincinnati, Dayton, Youngstown, and Lima — are projected to see growth. Sales in Akron and Mansfield are expected to decline, while Toledo’s retail activity is predicted to remain steady. Cleveland, Columbus, and Cincinnati alone are forecasted to account for 55.5 percent of statewide holiday spending.
While consumer sentiment shows signs of decline, Evans noted that no statewide impact from increased tariffs has been observed.
About the Ohio Council of Retail Merchants
Founded in 1922, the Ohio Council of Retail Merchants represents more than 7,500 retail and wholesale establishments across the state. The industry contributes 18% of Ohio’s GDP and supports 1.5 million jobs, accounting for one in four Ohio jobs.
The full 2025 Holiday Retail Sales Study is available on Twitter/X @ohiomerchants and online.
