USA – Closures and Quarantines are in place for one reason, to slow the spread of the outbreak and save lives. The question is how? The CDC posted a illustration that shows how it works.
According to epidemiologist Marc Lipstick at Harvard he estimates that 20 to 60 percent of adults will be infected with the Coronavirus. Lipstick says that most of the people infected with the virus have been mild but about 1% have died. That could add up to tens of thousands of deaths in the Unites States alone.
Because I am now less certain of where the R0 will end up (and how it may vary geographically) I am going to revise downward the range of outcomes I consider plausible to 20%-60% of adults infected. This involves subjectivity about what range of R0 may turn out to be true.
— Marc Lipsitch (@mlipsitch) March 3, 2020
The speed in which a virus spreads is important in saving lives because a rapidly spreading virus could overwhelm health care facilities like they have seen in hospitals in other areas of the world and can cause a reduction in healthcare with not enough beds or ventilators to survive the sickness.
1. A very short thread on the power of data graphics and scientific communication.
Roughly a week ago, some very smart person* sat down, drew this graph, and saved lives.
(*It's 2 AM. Without an economist subscription, I can't quickly discover whom. Maybe someone can help.) pic.twitter.com/eU71Eu60eS
— Carl T. Bergstrom (@CT_Bergstrom) March 6, 2020
The CDC advises that people over 60 and people with chronic medical conditions,“avoid crowds as much as possible.”
By minimizing exposure by closing events, schools, and festivals you can shorten how many people catch the virus and slow down mass exposure. Looking at the graph now you see that this a tactical approach to fighting the virus much like what we recently experienced with the flu and cancelations of schools to let the sickness run its course and not jump to the next body.